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Cooler Gulf of Maine Waters Could Benefit Lobster Fishing This Summer
There is good news for lobster fishermen in the Northeast. NOAA scientists predict cooler bottom waters in the Gulf of Maine this spring and summer, potentially creating favorable conditions for fishing in the region’s most valuable fishery. For lobstermen who’ve weathered years of unpredictable conditions, this news could be a welcome relief.
The experimental seasonal forecast indicates that bottom temperatures are expected to drop 0.9 to 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit below average, marking a significant shift for waters that warmed faster than almost anywhere else globally from 2004 to 2013.
Gulf of Maine currents are shown with predicted cooling areas that may improve conditions for lobster and groundfish this year. Photo: NMFS
March 2025 survey data from NOAA and the eMOLT program, a partnership with commercial fishermen, already shows the cooling trend. Bottom temperatures across much of the Gulf of Maine measured 0.9 to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit below normal for March, with particularly cool conditions along Georges Bank and the Mid-Atlantic shelf break.
“The cooling trend from the Labrador Shelf region is significant and could have important effects on local marine ecosystems and fisheries,” said Vincent Saba, a research fishery biologist at NOAA’s Northeast Fisheries Science Center.
Lobster Industry Implications
The temperature shift could be particularly significant for New England’s lobster industry, which generates the region’s highest revenues from marine fisheries. American lobster populations are highly temperature-sensitive, and recent warming has already reshaped the fishery’s geography.
Warmer waters contributed to the collapse of southern New England’s lobster population, while the Gulf of Maine stock surged as conditions remained more favorable. The predicted cooling could further stabilize and potentially enhance lobster productivity in the Gulf of Maine.
Katherine Mills, senior scientist at the Gulf of Maine Research Institute, notes that cooler temperatures also benefit groundfish species like cod, haddock, and winter flounder. “This information can help commercial harvesters and supply chain businesses more effectively plan their operations,” Mills said.
Natural Climate Variability
The cooling trend appears linked to a southward shift of the Gulf Stream current, allowing cooler Labrador Slope and Scotian Shelf waters to flow into the region. NOAA models from 2023 predicted this pause in warming, suggesting it’s part of natural ocean and atmospheric cycles occurring over several years.
The Gulf of Maine experienced major marine heatwaves in 2012 and 2016 that disrupted fishing patterns and left many in the industry scrambling to adapt. The current cooling trend, if sustained, could provide the kind of stable conditions that allow lobstermen to plan their seasons with greater confidence.
Predicted bottom temperatures for late August 2025 compared to the ten-year average, with deeper waters showing the most significant cooling. Photo: Andrew Ross/NOAA Research
The forecast utilizes NOAA’s advanced SPEAR model, combined with high-resolution regional modeling, to predict conditions up to 10 years in advance. NOAA plans quarterly updates to help the fishing industry anticipate changing conditions.
“These outlooks help us communicate predicted changes, allowing the fishing industry and coastal communities to prepare and respond effectively,” Saba said.
While scientists caution that several years of data are needed to confirm long-term trends, the current cooling pattern aligns with model predictions and could signal more favorable fishing conditions ahead for Gulf of Maine lobstermen. After years of adapting to warmer waters and shifting patterns, many in the industry will closely monitor these temperature forecasts.
The post Cooler Gulf of Maine Waters Could Benefit Lobster Fishing This Summer appeared first on OutdoorHub.
Continue reading...
Cooler Gulf of Maine Waters Could Benefit Lobster Fishing This Summer
There is good news for lobster fishermen in the Northeast. NOAA scientists predict cooler bottom waters in the Gulf of Maine this spring and summer, potentially creating favorable conditions for fishing in the region’s most valuable fishery. For lobstermen who’ve weathered years of unpredictable conditions, this news could be a welcome relief.
The experimental seasonal forecast indicates that bottom temperatures are expected to drop 0.9 to 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit below average, marking a significant shift for waters that warmed faster than almost anywhere else globally from 2004 to 2013.
Gulf of Maine currents are shown with predicted cooling areas that may improve conditions for lobster and groundfish this year. Photo: NMFS
March 2025 survey data from NOAA and the eMOLT program, a partnership with commercial fishermen, already shows the cooling trend. Bottom temperatures across much of the Gulf of Maine measured 0.9 to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit below normal for March, with particularly cool conditions along Georges Bank and the Mid-Atlantic shelf break.
“The cooling trend from the Labrador Shelf region is significant and could have important effects on local marine ecosystems and fisheries,” said Vincent Saba, a research fishery biologist at NOAA’s Northeast Fisheries Science Center.
Lobster Industry Implications
The temperature shift could be particularly significant for New England’s lobster industry, which generates the region’s highest revenues from marine fisheries. American lobster populations are highly temperature-sensitive, and recent warming has already reshaped the fishery’s geography.
Warmer waters contributed to the collapse of southern New England’s lobster population, while the Gulf of Maine stock surged as conditions remained more favorable. The predicted cooling could further stabilize and potentially enhance lobster productivity in the Gulf of Maine.
Katherine Mills, senior scientist at the Gulf of Maine Research Institute, notes that cooler temperatures also benefit groundfish species like cod, haddock, and winter flounder. “This information can help commercial harvesters and supply chain businesses more effectively plan their operations,” Mills said.
Natural Climate Variability
The cooling trend appears linked to a southward shift of the Gulf Stream current, allowing cooler Labrador Slope and Scotian Shelf waters to flow into the region. NOAA models from 2023 predicted this pause in warming, suggesting it’s part of natural ocean and atmospheric cycles occurring over several years.
The Gulf of Maine experienced major marine heatwaves in 2012 and 2016 that disrupted fishing patterns and left many in the industry scrambling to adapt. The current cooling trend, if sustained, could provide the kind of stable conditions that allow lobstermen to plan their seasons with greater confidence.
Predicted bottom temperatures for late August 2025 compared to the ten-year average, with deeper waters showing the most significant cooling. Photo: Andrew Ross/NOAA Research
The forecast utilizes NOAA’s advanced SPEAR model, combined with high-resolution regional modeling, to predict conditions up to 10 years in advance. NOAA plans quarterly updates to help the fishing industry anticipate changing conditions.
“These outlooks help us communicate predicted changes, allowing the fishing industry and coastal communities to prepare and respond effectively,” Saba said.
While scientists caution that several years of data are needed to confirm long-term trends, the current cooling pattern aligns with model predictions and could signal more favorable fishing conditions ahead for Gulf of Maine lobstermen. After years of adapting to warmer waters and shifting patterns, many in the industry will closely monitor these temperature forecasts.
The post Cooler Gulf of Maine Waters Could Benefit Lobster Fishing This Summer appeared first on OutdoorHub.
Continue reading...